Defining optimal GHG reduction trajectories for 2030 and 2050 for Quebec

Client : Dunsky Energy Expertise for the Ministère de l’Environnement de la Lutte aux changements climatiques [Quebec’s Ministry of the Environment and the Fight Against Climate Change] (MELCC)—Canada

Period : 2017—ongoing

Description : Commissioned by the Government of Quebec, this project aims to propose optimized greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction trajectories to reach the 2030 target (-37.5% below 1990 levels) and the more ambitious goal for 2050 (-80% to -95%). Using its economy-wide GHG-optimization NATEM model, ESMIA provided the core results that allowed for the identification of least-cost mitigation strategies in all sectors of the Quebec economy (both energy and non-energy sectors). A wide variety of scenarios have been analyzed to take into account the main uncertainties regarding the evolution of demand for energy services and the availability of emerging technologies. While an initial study is already serving as a foundation for the Government of Quebec for the development of its next climate action plan, an important update is underway to integrate the most recent information available for this complex problem.