Trottier Energy Futures Project (TEFP) for selecting optimal strategies to reduce GHG by 80% in Canada by 2050

Client : Trottier Family Foundation, Canadian Academy of Engineering and David Suzuki Foundation

Period : 2013–2016

Description : TEFP is recognized as the most comprehensive and rigorous study undertaken to date in Canada for deriving optimal strategies for GHG mitigation by 80% by 2050 (below 1990 levels) without jeopardizing economic growth. This challenging assignment was executed by a team of multiple experts from across Canada, covering the full range of disciplines required for such a complex undertaking. Two large complementary mathematical models (optimization and simulation) were selected to fully represent the energy systems of Canada and its thirteen interconnected jurisdictions. ESMIA consultants served as the lead optimization modellers applying the robust NATEM model to provide in-depth understanding of the impacts of different premises and mitigation options on meeting both growing energy-based demands and increasingly stringent GHG reduction targets. Results from the project were subject to extensive peer review.

Still today, interest in the TEFP outcomes continues to stimulate discussion on the climate mitigation challenge. Modelling results were used by Environment and Climate Change Canada to draft their Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Development Strategy submission to the UNFCCC, and the Conference Board of Canada has studied the macroeconomic and social implications of these deep GHG reductions.